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1. INTRODUCTION An interagency mission composed of representatives and staff of six United Nations organizations present in Cuba (UNDP, UNICEF, World Food Programme, FAO, UNESCO, and WHO/PAHO) carried out a visit to the areas most affected by MICHELLE in order to evaluate the possibility of lending assistance to the Government of Cuba in the midst of its extraordinary effort to respond to this atmospheric phenomenon. The United Nations group in Havana was informed of the decision of the Government of the Republic of Cuba not to request international assistance. The UN respects this decision and it is highly impressed by the immense effort being exerted by the national authorities, the provincial and the local authorities to meet the most urgent needs of the population, as well as by its full participation of in the tasks of recovery and reconstruction, in the midst of enormous material limitations. The UN Group strongly believes that the population and the authorities of Cuba deserve the support from all those who value the humanistic degree of this immense effort. At the same time, the UN Group believes that its own evaluation may make it possible for its own programmes in Cuba to be strengthened and adjusted in order to better assist the affected population to face the consequences of the hurricane. The present report contains the evaluation of our visit carried out to the most affected areas barely two days after the passing of the hurricane, as well as a global assessment of the medium terms effects, analysis that will be most useful when the programmatic priorities of the UN Group in Cuba are established in consultation with the Government. In the following pages we offer our vision of the visit, figures and data offered to us by the local authorities and a group of images and photos that demonstrate the incredible fury of the this storm, as well as a list of needs compiled on the basis of our own observations. The UN Group expresses our profound gratitude to the Government of the Republic of Cuba, represented by MINVEC --the Ministry for Foreign Investment and Economic Cooperation--, the National Civil Defense, the provincial, municipal and local authorities and the local population of the places visited who, taking away time from their much-deserved rest and in the midst of urgent tasks required by the catastrophe, with great courtesy dedicated precious time to give us information and offer to us a vision of the actual situation and a perspective of their respective territories.

2. THE MOST DEVASTATING HURRICANE TO STRIKE CUBA IN MORE THAN HALF A CENTURY MICHELLE was a class 4 hurricane in the 5-class Saffir-Simpson scale. Just before striking Cuba, the National Weather Service issued in Miami its Advisory 23, warning of the extremely dangerous nature of the storm:

zczc miatcpat5 all ttaa00 knhc ddhhmm bulletin hurricane michelle advisory number 23 national weather service miami fl 4 am est sun nov 04 2001

...extremely dangerous michelle moving northeastward toward cuba... at 4 am est...0900z...the hurricane watch has been upgraded to a hurricane warning for all of the florida keys from ocean reef westward to the dry tortugas...including florida bay.

a hurricane warning is in effect for western cuba for the provinces from pinar del rio eastward to ciego de avila... including the isle of youth. a tropical storm warning is in effect for the east coast of florida from jupiter inlet southward to ocean reef and along the west coast of florida south of bonita beach.

a hurricane watch is in effect for the northwestern and central bahamas. this includes grand bahama...the abacos...the berry islands...bimini...andros...new providence...eleuthera...cat island...exumas...san salvador...rum cay and long island. a tropical storm warning is in effect for the cayman islands.

at 4 am est...0900z...the center of hurricane michelle was located near latitude 20.4 north...longitude 83.1 west or about 180 miles...290 km...south of havana cuba. this is also about 80 miles...130 km...south of the isle of youth.

michelle is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph...11 km/hr... and a northeastward or north-northeastward motion is expected during the next 24 hours. on this track...the core of this dangerous hurricane should pass very close to the isle of youth later this morning and then across cuba later today or tonight.

maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph...215 km/hr...with higher gusts. some fluctuations in intensity are possible before landfall. hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles... 75 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles...260 km.

estimated minimum central pressure is 944 mb...27.88 inches. rainbands are affecting portions of cuba...the cayman islands...and jamaica. rainfall accumulations of 10 to 20 inches can be expected near the path of michelle as it crosses cuba. outer rainbands are also spreading across the florida straits and the florida keys.

a storm surge of near 20 feet...or 6 meters...is possible near and to the east of where the eye makes landfall on the south coast of cuba. repeating the 4 am est position...20.4 n... 83.1 w. movement toward...northeast near 7 mph. maximum sustained winds...135 mph. minimum central pressure... 944 mb.

for storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.

an intermediate advisory will be issued by the national hurricane center at 7 am est followed by the next complete advisory at 10 am est. forecaster stewart

Just as forecast by that Office, MICHELLE struck Cuba with full force. This map shows the rout followed by the hurricane.

The hurricane advisory warned that MICHELLE cut a 90-mile-wide path of 135 mile an hour winds, gusting to 155 mph. Tropical storm winds extended outwards 160 miles from the hurricane's center. A real killer hurricane!

3. THE NATIONAL RESPONSE As the hurricane advanced towards Cuba, following directions from Cuba's Civil Defense organization, local and provincial governments evacuated more than 712,000 persons from dangerous areas. Not one single incident was registered during the massive evacuation. 270 thousand evacuees were housed in Government-provided shelters, where they received full board and constant medical attention. In all of Cuba, 5 people died -four of them killed by falling buildings, while a fifth drowned. 12 persons were injured by falling buildings. Given the intensity of the hurricane, the destruction of coastal villages by the fury of the sea and the extensive flooding of low-lying areas, the evacuation conducted by Civil Defense and Government authorities was decisive in the prevention of major loss of life.

The UN group expressed its admiration over the high degree of preparedness, organization and coordination by the authorities, both before and after the passing of the hurricane, which not only helped prevent a large number of deaths but also allows the prompt facing of consequences and damages, a major factor in preventing ensuing economic, social, environmental and spiritual difficulties.

The UN Group witnessed during its visit immediate actions by authorities at all levels in delivering construction materials to families whose housing was damaged by the hurricane, the attention to families at Government-provided shelters the swift removal of debris and fallen trees, specialized attention to the emotional recovery of girls and boys, the distribution of foodstuffs, especially milk for children, the restoration of vital services, such as electricity, water and communications. Special attention was paid to the chlorination of water, in order to prevent disease.

The swift and efficient actions by the authorities in the affected areas, both before and after the hurricane, are evidence of the extraordinary capacity by the Government of Cuba to prepare, prevent and mitigate, actions which did not only prevent death and destruction but which also facilitate reconstruction and recovery activities.

It is also an important sign of the absorptive capacity of the Government of Cuba when help and assistance is provided.

4. THE EFFECTS Immediate

The hurricane affected 45% of the Cuban territory and 53% of the nation's population. The affected area includes 8 provinces and one special municipality. The UN Group visited three of the most affected provinces, Matanzas, Cienfuegos and Villa Calra, where it was able to witness a wide and striking show of the devastation caused by MICHELLE in the country. All along the route from Havana to Matanzas city, along the coastal highway called Via Blanca, the path of the destruction was made evident by the fallen trees and electrical and telephone posts.

4.1. VISIT TO THE PROVINCE OF MATANZAS

Already in the capital city of Matanzas, which did not have electricity, the Group saw concentrations of people around tanker vehicles distributing potable water. We were informed that the authorities before distribution chlorinated all of the water, and that the population received chlorine tablets to treat water from other sources. The provincial authorities, who received the UN Group at the headquarters of the Provincial Assembly, reminded us that this was the most affected territory in Cuba. Some 60,700 people had to be evacuated. The storm came into the Cuban territory through the Ciénaga de Zapata on 4 November y crossed the territory from southeast to northeast, exiting on 5 November just to the east of the provincial boundary, through the small town of Corralillo, in the neighboring province of Villa Clara.

On Tuesday 7 November, 73% of Matanzas province did not have electricity and, therefore, the provision of piped potable water was also interrupted. The visit that followed allowed us to confirm that thousands of electrical and telephone posts were on the ground, with wires broken and entangled in trees an other objects.

This caused the suspension of telegraphic and telephone communications. The hurricane caused the fall of television towers in Matanzas and Cienfuegos, and numerous radio and telecommunication towers were also on the ground. Flooding was still present in various urban and rural areas. Some 24% of housing of the province were affected -mainly the roofing- leaving some 18,000 people without homes. It is estimated that some 29,000 girls and boys suffered some kind of affectation. Some 300 schools, half of the existing ones, suffered damages -roof and windows-- and 20 schools were totally destroyed. Several medical facilities and daycare centers also suffered significant damage. However, and despite the damages, we were told that that school activities would start the following day (three days after the hurricane passed through Cuba), and several alternative solutions were being put into place so that the pupils of the destroyed schools could continue their educational activities in other installations.

In terms of the agricultural sector of the province, the losses are total in the plantation of plantains and other ground products, mainly edible roots such as Yucca. The winds of some 135 miles an hour destroyed the harvest of citrus fruits - oranges and grapefruit - that were still in the process of ripening in the large plantations of southern Matanzas. A small portion of that fruit could be processed, if labor should be available for this purpose and as soon as the industrial installations have their electricity reinstated and its roofing repaired. Even if all of these conditions are met --picking up the fallen fruit, its transport and processing, the economic losses are already in the millions of dollars in the citrus industry.

The sugar industry also deserves a special mention given the fact that it is one of the critical pillars of the Cuban economy. The sugar cane fields of Matanzas suffered the full strength of MICHELLE and, given the fact that the plants were flattened by the winds, their mechanical harvesting will be more difficult. The industrial installations of the sugar industry also suffered, particularly the roofing of the mills. This situation is also applicable to the provinces of Cienfuegos and Villa Clara and the rest of the affected provinces to the west and center of the country. The aviary installations also received significant damages which will be negatively reflected in the production of eggs and poultry. Many of these installations lost their roof, a situation repeated in the other affected provinces.

The UN Group visited the small town of Jaguey Grande, in the southern part of Matanzas, as well as the Ciénaga de Zapata (Zapata Swamp), the entry point of the storm. Both of these places are among the most affected in the country by MICHELLE and offered the visitors some of the most graphic samples of the destruction caused by the storm. In Ciénaga de Zapata there was a dangerous process of flooding due to the infiltration of waters originating from other areas of Matanzas that had been affected by the heavy rains that accompanied the hurricane in certain sections (up to some 500 mm in some areas).

Having witnessed the magnitude of the damages, it was possible to gauge with greater clarity the effectiveness of the work of prevention, preparation and mitigation carried out by the Civil Defense and the local, municipal and provincial authorities. All the people that were at risk, as well as thousands of livestock were evacuated to safe areas. In Matanzas, there were 4 deaths due to building collapses of the total 5 in the whole territory of Cuba.

The food security of the province is at risk in the immediate months, takeing into account that the storm destroyed the crops that were about to be harvested and those that were in the process of early growth. In expressing their own concern for this situation, the authorities informed us that the recovery and reconstruction efforts include the planting of crops with short cycles and the intensification of work in organoponic and other installations of urban agriculture, taking advantage of the vegetables season during the forthcoming cooler months.

The province of Matanzas is one of the main tourist centers of Cuba. In Varadero the damages to hotels and other installations were minor. However in Ciénaga de Zapata, the Boca de Guamá, the small village of Guamá and the Playa Girón and Playa Larga tourist facilities suffered devastating damages.

4.2. VISIT TO THE PROVINCE OF CIENFUEGOS

Almost at nightfall of 7 November, the UN Group left the province of Matanzas and arrived at the neighboring village of Aguada de Pasajeros, the headquarters of the municipal government of the same name in the province of Cienfuegos, one of the most affected by the storm. In Aguada, as well as Abreus and Rodas, places that were also visited, the devastation was also present as in Matanzas province. In Aguada, the UN Group visited a shelter where we were able to witness the excellent care provided by the authorities to guarantee adequate food, medical attention and recreation for the families lodged at the facility because of the loss of their homes.

Late in the night, the UN Group was received at the Headquarters of the Provincial Government by the President of the Administrative Council and the First Secretary of the Party. The city of Cienfuegos was just beginning to receive electricity, although many of its settlements were still without electricity, communications, piped water and other services linked to the electrical system. In Cienfuegos there were also many houses, buildings, industrial and agricultural installations and other services, including schools and health service facilities, that were seriously aff two fishing settlements (Playa Carahatas and La Panchita) wherehundreds of houses were destroyed or severely damaged due to violent seapenetrations. Similar conditions are found in the other small settlements in Ciénaga de Zapata, province of Matanzas. In the city of Havana there are some 14,756 affected housing units. A considerable portion of those families with housing totally destroyed will remain in shelters provided by the Government until new houses or building units are finished, which will represent approximately a minimum time frame of one year. The main strategy designed by most of the local authorities is to stimulate the direct participation of those affected, in the reconstruction of their own homes, for which they can count on the solidarity of their neighbors and building materials provided by the Government. Some of these materials will have to be imported, meaning an added expense. Another important factor to take into consideration is the added cost of maintaining families in shelters, as well as the cost of paying full salary to these workers, absent from their jobs during the period that they are rebuilding their homes.

In addition to the damages to the homes, other negative impacts include damaged basic items such as : mattresses, refrigerators and other domestic appliances.. All of these require immediate attention, particularly the need for mattresses.

Health: In the affected areas there are damages are reported in the health institutions, including hospital centers. In the case of the province of Matanzas four of these were affected, one of which, the Colon Hospital, has major damages. The very important Ameijeiras Hospital, in Havana, suffered a penetration of the sea in its lower floors. The sea water damaged important and very expensive pieces of equipment including two Computerized Axial Tomographers, and one other for MRIs, services which are of critical need for the population. There are also damages reported in other health installations such as medical clinics, policlinics, pharmacies, homes for pregnant women at risk and old people's homes. For the most part, damages are in the roofing of the installations, mainly those in the rural sector. The main medicine warehouses were fortunately saved, although the preventive measures that situations such as these require will necessitate greater amounts of medicines. This is one of the priority lines of the Government at this stage.

Education: The impact on educational installations was considerable. It is officially reported that some 1,500 schools were damaged, of this at least 50 totally destroyed. The greatest damage to these installations was in the woodwork for doors and windows, mainly in the rural Basic Secondary and Pre-university schools, and in roofs in the case of primary schools, mainly in rural areas. The main special appliances at these installations, such as TV sets, VCRs and computers, were saved, as well as solar panels in the case of isolated schools that draw electricity from that source. The school activity had been stopped temporarily in the most affected zones but was expected to be resumed in the following hours.

The repair of schools requires much wood, roofing as well as furniture, school materials and mattresses, particularly in the case of school that provide boarding, which are a considerable portion of those affected. The damages to university installations are not so considerable, although major damages are reported to the Botanical Gardens of Matanzas and Cienfuegos. Day care centers: Similar to the educational installations of the affected zones, several day care centers for children from 0 to 5 years of age were damaged. These installations are of great importance since they facilitate the incorporation of mothers to the labor force. The greatest damages are in roofing, carpentry, furniture and mattresses. In the case of Matanzas, whose losses could serve as a thermometer for the rest of the provinces, 30 day care centers were damaged out of the 61 operational in that province. The situation in Cienfuegos, Villa Clara and Isla de la Juventud is probably the same in general terms.

Considering the impact of the hurricane on the housing, educational institutions and day care centers, as well as the number of evacuated families, the impact on the infant population can be gauged, particularly in the most affected provinces. One large part of the boys and girls of these areas have been forced by this tragedy to change their environment and their habitat from one day to the next, and it will be so for many during an extended period of time. In this sense, the government authorities, both at the central and local levels, are displaying an extraordinary effort in order to mitigate those negative effects. However, given the existing material limitations, international assistance should be most welcomed. Other social institutions: There are also reported damages in old people's homes, grandparent clubs and local recreational institutions. As in other cases, the damage concentrates in roofing, carpentry and furniture.

11. IMPACT ON THE FOOD SITUATION

As was explained earlier, the damages to the agricultural sector strongly affects the feeding of the population, particularly in the most affected provinces. Although the Government will implement a strategy to plant short cycle crops during the cold weather season (second annual agricultural period, starting in November) already in process, an important part of these products can not be harvested before March-April 2002. For this to happen, it is absolutely essential to have seeds, fertilizer and pesticides, and to repair irrigation systems severely damaged by the hurricane. The success of the next planting season will depend on the rapid repair of these installations. This will mean that there will be a period of five months (November 2001 - April 2002) of food scarcity. This scarcity will have repercussions not only in the five affected provinces but also on the national market, since these provinces are important contributors to those markets. At the same time, the scarcity of food products could also result in an increase in prices in the non-state markets, particularly in the affected provinces.

Taking into account all of these aspects, the country could face a period of food insecurity between the months of November 2001 to April 2002.

10. IMPACT ON THE PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE

The most important damages in terms of physical infrastructure correspond mainly to the communications and electricity sectors, since highways, roads and bridges did not suffer considerably.

Electricity: The electrical grid suffered damages of great importance, including the destruction of some 125 high tension towers that connect the East-West national energy system. Likewise, thousands of electricity poles were either felled or broken, a large part of which will have to be replaced. This operation will demand the employment of a highly specialized labor force, its total operation could take months and will require most likely the importation of various components. Despite these damages, Government response has been swift, and was able through different alternatives or provisional solutions to reinstate electrical service in a large portion of the national territory. However, power outages during the passing of the hurricane and the following days caused various damages, mostly in the production process of various industries that had to paralyze their operations.

Communications: The impact of the hurricane on this sector was high due to the fact that several towers and thousands of poles fell down interrupting telephone services as well as radio and television transmissions. The recovery in this sector will be gradual and will require of equipment imports. One of the most important actions will be the reconstruction of the 70-meter high communication tower in the province of Matanzas, one of the key micro-wave systems of the country, covering radio, television and telephone communications. It represents a costly and technologically-complex operation.

12. IMPACT ON THE NATIONAL PRODUCTION Several causes directly associated to the passing of the hurricane have led to the stoppage of production and work in numerous industrial and service centers in Cuba´s central and western provinces. Lack of electricity, communications and damages to infrastructure are mostly responsible. Although it is difficult at this moment to quantify the value of losses,, it must be relatively high, a factor which will affect the economic results of the present year. This becomes more important in the case of export products.

13. IMPACT ON EMPLOYMENT, INCOME AND MACROECONOMIC EQUILIBRIUM

The reduction of stoppage of productive activities, mainly in cases where the installations have suffered considerable damages, will affect employment in specific places at the most affected zones. However, in general terms, this should not significantly influence the national unemployment levels, given that in one way or another the various entities affected will continue to provide employment to their workers for the most part. However, for a more precise analysis on the impact on the real per-capita income other factors will need to be taken into consideration. The majority of the enterprises in Cuba have been gradually adopting the system of linking salary to the final labor results, a factor of capital importance within the on-going managerial reform. In the case of enterprises whose levels of production will be affected, specially in the agricultural sector, the Government has decided to maintain the average salary of the workers, at least for some time, including those that will have to dedicate their time to the reconstruction of their destroyed homes.

14. IMPACT ON THE CULTURAL PATRIMONY

Because of the characteristics of the areas affected by the hurricane, mostly rural, the damages to the cultural patrimony were not significant. Measures were also taken to preserve museum collections, libraries and other cultural centers. However the century-old Terry and Sauto theatres, in Cienfuegos and Matanzas, respectively, have sustained damages in woodwork and furniture, although not in their structures. In the case Havana's Historical Center, there were reports of hundreds of houses collapsed, affecting some 1,700 inhabitants. One schools with some 500 students was felled by the storm.

15. IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT The consequences of this type of phenomenon on the environment and the ecosystme equilibrium are difficult to determine in the short term, but they undoubtedly occur and need to be monitored. UNDP, within its Sabana Camaguey and the project on the System of Protected Areas include environmental impact assessemnts that will become handy to measure and monitor the effects in the medium and long terms. In the specific case of the Ciénaga de Zapata, zone of particular ecological importance, there are reportf of signifcant damage to the vegetation and fauna of the site.

16. PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF NEEDS

Immediate

The Government of Cuba has prioritized the supply of foodstuffs, medicines and raw materials for the manufacture of selected medicines. However, knowing that many of those interested in offering support to Cuba in these times of urgent needs are in a position to provide some other articles, which are also in urgent demand in the country, the UN institutions in Cuba, following the tour of affected areas, issue the following indicative list of suggested items, so as to facilitate the task of those interested in providing that help. Food production and food security Food products for persons lodged at temporary shelters (mainly those who lost their homes and do not have the possibility of returning to their own areas because they don't have relatives or friends who could lodge them). Also, food products for vulnerable groups affected the shortage of foodstuffs placing them at risk of food insecurity.

Seeds

Irrigation infrastructure

Fertilizers

Pesticides

Materials for the construction of organoponic production units

Materials for the construction of Aquaculture production units

Health and social infrastructure (hospitals, health posts, clinics, pharmacies, homes for pregnant women at risk, old people's homes and day care centers) 

Roofing (preferably zinc)

Building materials

Carpentry material and glass for windows

Refrigerators for the maintenance of medicaments

Laboratory equipment

Ambulances

Medical equipment and instrumental in general

Raw materials for the production of medicaments

Medicines and vitamins particularly to attend to the needs of children and pregnant women

Educational sector

Roofs (preferably zinc)

Building materials

Carpentry materials and glass for windows

Computers (to replace those lost during the storm)

Desks and tables

School and other materials (to replace the personal property lost by children)

Electricity

Small generators

Kerosene lamps

Lanterns

Communications

Mobile communications equipment (two way radios)

Housing human settlements

Roofing (preferably zinc)

Building materials, particularly wood

Carpentry materials and glass for windows

Home appliances (particularly refrigerators and small cookers)

Beds

Mattresses

Blankets

Clothing (to replace the losses)

1. Medium Term

An effort will be made to produce, as soon as possible, a list of actions needed to address problems of medium and long term nature in the area of food production and food security, forestry sector, housing, productive sector, social infrastructure, energy and communications. Some of the immediate needs listed above are identified as needed to initiate this medium term reconstruction and recovery.

UN System in Cuba

Contact Information

UNDP

Mr. Luis Gómez Echeverri
Resident Representative
Tel: (53-7) 204-1512, 13, 14, 15 204-2807
Fax: (53.7) 204-1516

E-mail: luis.gomez.echeverri@undp.org

UNICEF

Ms. Françoise Gruloos-Ackermans
Representative

Tel: (53-7) 208-6094 208-6307
Fax: (53-7) 208-6288
E-mail: havana@unicef.org

World Food Programme (WFP)

Mr. Germán Valdivia
Representative

Tel: (53-7) 204-1505 204-2039
Fax: (53-7) 204-1505
E-mail: german.valdivia@wfp.org

FAO

Mr. Fernando Robayo
Representative
Tel: (53-7) 208-6411, 12, 13
Fax: (53-7) 208-6409
E-mail: fao-cub@field.fao.org faocuba@ceniai.inf.cu

UNESCO

Mr. Francisco J. Lacayo Parajón
Regional Director and Representative
Tel: (53-7) 32-7741 32-2840 32-7638 32-1787 33-3438
Fax: (53-7) 33-3144
E-mail: habana@unesco.org

PAHO/WHO

Mr. Patricio Yépez
Representative
Tel: (53-7) 55-2526 55-2527 53-5808
Fax: (53-7) 66-2075
E-mail: pwr@cub.ops-oms.org

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